The French real estate market in the second half of 2026 does not resemble what observers anticipated at the beginning of the year. The recovery that began in 2025 has lost momentum, credit rates are gradually rising, and price gaps between cities are widening. Understanding these trends in the real estate market in France requires looking beyond national averages to see what is really happening, segment by segment.
New Real Estate in 2026: The Unexpected Return of Investors After a Collapse
General analyses focus heavily on the old properties. However, new properties deserve the spotlight. After a disastrous year in 2025 for developers, with a drop of over 50% in sales to investors for some players, the first quarter of 2026 marked a clear turnaround.
Groups like Altarea recorded a rebound of over 50% in their investor reservations during this period. This is not a coincidence. The Jeanbrun scheme targets specific areas and property types, which directs purchases towards well-identified programs.
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This recovery remains selective. It does not concern all cities or all types of new housing. Programs located in tight zones with regulated rents attract more interest than those in the outskirts. In other words, new properties are only gaining traction where rental yields are secure.
Mortgage Rates: Why the Rise Changes the Game for Buyers
Have you noticed that banks have become more demanding in recent months? It’s not just an impression. In May 2026, the average mortgage rate reached 3.25%, with 3.34% for 20 years and 3.37% for 25 years.
To understand what this means in practical terms, let’s take a simple example. A household that could borrow a certain amount at a lower rate at the end of 2024 now sees its borrowing capacity reduced by several tens of thousands of euros, with the same monthly payment. The rise in rates mechanically reduces buyers’ budgets, which dampens demand in areas where prices have not yet fallen.
The 10-year OAT, which serves as a reference for banks to set their rates, is at its highest level since 2009. As long as this bond remains high, there is no reason for mortgage rates to decrease.
What This Means for First-Time Buyers
First-time buyers are the most exposed. Unlike households that sell a property before buying another, they do not have a contribution from a capital gain. Bank selection remains strict: without a significant contribution and job stability, obtaining a loan is like an obstacle course.
Real Estate Prices by City: Growing Disparities in France
The national average hides a very fragmented reality. Over the year, apartment prices increased by 1.3% in Toulouse and 0.8% in Marseille. At the same time, they fell by 7.4% in Perpignan.
The housing market further accentuates these contrasts:
- Nice shows an increase of about 1%, driven by strong demand on the coast and a limited stock of available houses.
- Bordeaux records a decline of 8.3%, a consequence of an adjustment after years of strong increases and an imbalance between abundant supply and fewer buyers.
- Paris remains a special case, with square meter prices stabilizing after several quarters of correction, but with longer selling times.
The geography of the property now determines its selling price more than ever. Buying “in France” no longer means anything without specifying the city, neighborhood, and type of housing.
Rent Control and New Construction: Two Signals to Watch
The rent control experiments, in effect in several metropolitan areas, are set to expire in November 2026. Their extension is under discussion. For private landlords, this deadline represents a pivotal moment: depending on the decision, rental yields in the affected areas could change significantly.
On the construction side, building permits continue to decline while construction starts stabilize. This gap creates a paradox. Fewer permits filed today means fewer available homes in two to three years. The shortage of new housing, already visible in some urban areas, is likely to worsen.
Why This Also Concerns Buyers in the Old Market
When the supply of new housing dwindles, part of the demand shifts to the old market. This mechanism supports prices in tight areas, even when credit rates are rising. Households looking for housing have no alternative: they turn to what is available at the listed price.
The SeLoger / Meilleurs Agents barometer confirms this trend with a national increase of only 0.1% in the first half of 2026. The French real estate market is balanced, not in a general recovery. Buyers have room for negotiation in cities where supply exceeds demand, but not everywhere.
The second half of 2026 will hinge on two variables: the evolution of bond rates and the political decision on rent control. Those who buy or invest should think city by city, incorporating the real cost of credit into their calculations rather than waiting for a price drop that has already occurred in many local markets.